Dennis Stearns January Survey Results

AAII Triangle – January, 2017
Answers to Dennis Stearns, CFP Survey

1. What will the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average be at the end of 2017?
Average AAII-Triangle member estimate: 20,268 +2.2% gain excluding dividends versus
19,820 close on 12/29/2016.
Most forecasts in 19,000 – 21,000 range
Highest forecast: 25,000
Lowest forecast: 15,000

2. What will the #1 investing newspaper or internet headline be in 2017?
#1 – Trade wars & skirmishes
#2 – Lower taxes for everyone
#3 – Scandals & Ethics problems
#4 – US economy grows faster
#5 – Increase back to “normal” stock volatility

3. What will the 10 year Treasury note interest rate be at the end of 2017?
Average AAII-Triangle member estimate: 3.19% (versus current 2.5% interest rate)
Most forecasts in 2.7 – 3.3% range
Highest forecast: 5%
Lowest forecast: 1.9%

4. Will U.S. or international stocks perform better in 2017?
U.S. stocks perform better: 70%
International stocks perform better: 30%

5. What is your own #1 concern in 2017?
#1 – Geo-political instability (incl potential for new war)
#2 – Trade wars
#3 – Healthcare, what comes after ACA
#4 – US debt levels
#5 – Getting investment allocation decisions right.